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Last Week in Review: Rate cuts are coming

 

This past week the Federal Reserve, aka "The Fed", held their June meeting and as expected, left rates unchanged.
However, they said some key things which helped both Stocks and Bonds move nicely higher, with rates touching the best levels in 21 months.
The Fed removed the word "patient" in their Monetary Policy Statement to describe their monetary policy approach. This means they will react quickly with a rate cut and not be so "patient" in the future.
They also cited many "uncertainties" that may require a Fed rate cut -- slowing global economies, trade and disinflation.
One part of the Fed's dual mandate is price stability or inflation, and with inflation moderating the Fed wants to do what it can to "allow" inflation to rise -- they see cutting rates as a measure.
So now, financial markets are fully expecting a rate cut at the July 31 meeting.
Bottom line: a Fed rate cut is designed to keep the economy from falling into a recession. This coupled with the best rates in nearly two years is a wonderful story as summer officially begins.

Last Week in Review: The rate decline stalls

What a difference a month makes.
In May, stocks fell sharply, and interest rates declined each week. June has been a different story. The Fed has signaled rate cuts are likely coming. Stocks have been rallying higher, and the decline in interest rates has stalled.
The Fed can't control home loan rates. Those move mainly on inflation and expectations of inflation in the future. Inflation has remained tame for the past decade and is the main reason why home loan rates have stayed low as well.
This past week, we received another reading on consumer inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which confirmed there are no price pressures or inflation threat to the economy.
The result: the odds of a Fed rate cut have climbed to 85% for the July Fed Meeting on the idea that the Fed can comfortably cut rates and "allow" inflation to creep into the economy.
Also keeping home loan rates near two-year lows is the uncertainty and lack of resolution with the US/China trade turmoil. The next step is a potential meeting between US and China at the G20 Meeting June 28-29. Mark your calendar. This is an important event, because as this trade dispute goes so do the economies around the globe.
Bottom line -- we are seeing a strong economy, rising stocks, and two-year lows for home loan rates.

Overview

To confirm the value determination for Carrington Advantage Product (CFA, CFA Plus, and Investor Advantage) loans with amounts of $1 Million and greater, effective June 17, 2019, Carrington Mortgage Services, LLC (CMS) will implement the following new appraisal requirements.  These requirements apply for all loans received in Loan Set-Up (LSU) on and after the June 17, 2019 effective date.
When the new loan amount is greater than or equal to $1.0 Million CMS will require the following:

• Two full appraisals are required.
• Appraisals must be from different AMCs and must use different Appraisers.
• The second appraisal should be ordered once the loan file is approved.
• A CMS Underwriter will condition for the second appraisal.
• A Collateral Desk Review (CDA) is not required when a second appraisal is ordered.

Carrington thanks you for your business.

Last Week in Review: Fed cuts and home loan rates

For the sixth consecutive week home loan rates declined, once again fueled by the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China.
However, the decline in rates was halted on the notion the Fed is likely to CUT rates soon. Huh? That's right -- a couple of Federal Reserve members were speaking this week and suggested that the time might be right for a Fed rate cut.
How come home loan rates didn't improve further upon news? When the Fed cuts or lowers rates, they can only lower the Fed Funds Rate, which is an overnight lending rate between banks. The Fed doesn't control home loan rates.
When the Fed cuts rates it is doing so to fuel economic growth and/or allow inflation to rise -- both of these are bad for long-term rates like home loan rates. Additionally, Stocks love Fed rate cuts and moved nicely higher midweek, taking money out of Bonds thereby limiting their decline in yield or rates.
The ongoing trade tensions and slowing growth around the globe may very well continue to push home loan rates lower in the weeks and months ahead -- but we must now pay attention to the Fed who will look to "help" the Stock market from further declines by cutting rates. And anything that helps Stocks is usually not great for home loan rates.
Bottom line -- we are staring at 2-year lows in home loan rates and the time could not be much better to lock in on a purchase or refinance loan.

EFFECTIVE JUNE 17, 2019

As a reminder, in an effort to improve our services, Carrington Mortgage Services, LLC will transition to lender disclosed initial disclosure packages on new loan applications submitted on or after June 17th 2019.

At that time, we will no longer be able to accept broker disclosed loan packages.

With this change, we expect: 

• Faster turn times
• No more broker paid cures
• Less compliance risk for brokers
• Fewer hard stops in loan set-up

If you have any questions about this policy change please contact us.

Carrington Mortgage on the June 2019 Scotsman Guide Cover

Carrington Mortgage Services, LLC is on the June 2019 Scotsman Guide cover. We are committed to Delivering More to our clients as our niche is your success!
 

Last Week in Review: Interest rate disconnect

"Sell in May and go away"... an old Wall Street investment strategy which suggests not owning Stocks during the Summer months.
That investment strategy certainly worked this past May as Stocks declined each week in response to escalating US/China tensions, weakening global economic reports, and increased fears of a US recession.
When Stocks fall in price, typically rates fall as well. And this past week we watched the 10-year Note yield decline to 2.14% -- a 20-month low. However, home loan rates, which did decline slightly this past week, didn't experience the same sharp drop as the 10-year Note yield.
Why the disconnect? Why did the 10-year Note yield drop so much but home loan rates didn't?
Home loan rates are driven by the trading activity of mortgage-backed securities, and not how the 10-year Note yield moves.
When there is global unrest like we have seen this past week, investors around the globe look to park their money and investments into the "safe-haven" of the US Dollar by purchasing the US 10-year Note. Hence the reason for the larger decline in 10-year Note versus mortgage backed-securities and home loan rates.
Bottom line: Home loan rates may continue to drift lower if the US/China trade turmoil goes unresolved or escalates further.

Last Week in Review: Uncertainty helping rates

The ongoing and unresolved US/China trade turmoil is the biggest story to follow right now. The uncertainty and negative headlines associated with the negotiations have pushed Stocks lower for most of May, with Bonds and home loan rates being the beneficiary.
We would like to think that the talks over the past year or so will bring forth a positive agreement -- but it's unclear whether this will come to pass. The next round of talks is scheduled for June 28-29 at the G20 meeting, so there is likely to be no progress before this time. If that is the case, US interest rates will remain near multi-year lows.
One thing's for sure...the Fed will not be hiking rates anytime soon if this trade turmoil goes unresolved or escalates. In fact, there's actually a chance we see a Fed rate cut in 2019 -- especially if the US economy reacts poorly to the US/China trade dispute.
It's important to understand that this story, while very negative and uncertain at the moment, could change very quickly. If a positive resolution comes to pass, we should expect Stocks to reclaim all of their recent losses and more -- all at the expense of bonds and home loan rates.
Bottom line: Home loan rates are back near 16-month lows and coupled with the current strong US economic backdrop, it is an incredible moment to either refinance or purchase a home.

Overview

The Lock Desk will be closed on Monday, May 27, 2019 for Memorial Day, which is a Federal Holiday. Normal lock hours will resume on Tuesday, May 28, 2019.
Additionally, the Lock Desk will close early on Friday, May 24, 2019 at 10:00 A.M. PST due to the early close of the financial markets.
Locks that expire on the holiday will automatically roll to the next business day. In addition there are some important disclosure considerations associated with the holiday:

• Monday, May 27, 2019 cannot be included in the rescission period for refinance transactions.
• Monday, May 27, 2019 cannot be included in the seven (7) business day waiting period between the date the initial Loan Estimate (LE) was provided to the borrower and the consummation of the loan
• When re-disclosure of the LE is required, Monday, May 27, 2019 cannot be included in the four (4) business day waiting period between the date the revised LE was provided to the borrower and the consummation of the loan.
• When re-disclosure of the CD is required, Monday, May 27, 2019 cannot be included in the three (3) business day waiting period between the date the revised CD was provided to the borrower and the consummation of the loan.

Issues related to locks should be sent via email to lockdesk@carringtonms.com.

Last Week in Review: US/China uncertainty

The biggest story in the financial markets and around the globe is the ongoing US/China trade negotiations.
At the moment, there is no resolution and it appears there will be no resolution for at least several weeks as the US and China are not expected to talk again until the G-20 Summit June 28-29.
The uncertainty surrounding the talks helped home loan rates improve this week, and are at lows seen in January 2018. 
The US, China and the entire globe would benefit from a deal and should it happen, Stocks will likely recover all of their recent losses and then some. At the same time, should the story drag on and escalate as higher tariffs are instituted -- it would have a negative effect on global economies and Stocks may suffer as home loan rates improve further.
Looking at the US economy, it continues to do very well. Walmart posted incredibly strong corporate earnings this past week. Seeing they have $500B in annual sales -- if Walmart is doing well, the US economy is doing well.
In housing news, April Housing Starts and Building Permits came in higher than expectations, providing further evidence of confidence in the sector.
Bottom line: The backdrop to housing could not be much better. The economy is strong and home loan rates are historically low. Today presents an incredible window to consider buying or refinancing a home.