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Last Week in Review: We Are Going to Jackson

For the past couple of weeks, interest rates remained within a range and haven't moved higher or lower, seemingly waiting for the next big market event. That event could be soon as Central Bankers around the globe and our Fed Chair Jerome Powell are set to speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming.

Inflation Reduction Act Becomes Law

Last Tuesday, President Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act. The $750B plan has a host of new taxes and spending measures in hopes to lower prices for everyday Americans while pushing forward with cleaner energy initiatives.

Bonds and interest rates do not like inflation as evidenced by the doubling of rates in the 1st half of 2022. So, any reduction in inflation would be a welcome development for those who invest in bonds or are looking to borrow money. Leading into the signing and the initial market response thereafter showed no meaningful response.

It will be some time before we see the economic impact of this new law. With the 1st half of 2022 showing the US in a recession, hopes are for a resumption of economic growth, and inflation coming down over time.

New Home Construction Slumping

Housing Starts and Building Permits are slowing with the latter showing a surprisingly bad 9.6% decline month over month when the markets expected just a 2.0% decline. New home construction and sales make up a much smaller portion of the overall housing market, but the slowdown will have a negative impact on available housing inventory until the market finds balance. As the old saying goes...the cure for higher prices is higher prices. Home sale prices have declined offering potential home buyers a great opportunity, especially with rates having retreated since mid-June.

Oil Falling Beneath $90 a Barrel

Rising energy and daily essential costs have been the main culprit for high inflation and the economic slowdown in the first half of 2022. We are continuing to see signs of relief at the pump as oil has fallen from $124 a barrel to $87.

Oil prices decline in one of two ways:

1.) We create more supply

2.) Demand decreases through an economic slowdown

In China, they are struggling with both continued Covid lockdowns as well as a serious economic slowdown. This was a reason for the decline in oil this week. If oil continues to decline, it will go a long way to helping consumers regain their footing. With the savings rates declining, we need to bring consumers more relief on energy and daily essentials.

Bottom line: Home loan rate improvement has stalled of late as financial markets try to figure out whether inflation has peaked and how far the Fed will go with rate hikes. Until the next Fed Meeting, we should expect more uncertainty and volatility.

Last Week in Review: Inflation Cools, Market Drools

This past week an important reading on consumer inflation showed that we might have seen inflation peak in July. In response, the financial markets celebrated with stocks shooting higher and long-term rates ticking lower from the previous week's highs.

The highly anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) was reported last Wednesday and showed the headline CPI, which includes energy and food prices, was unchanged or 0.0% on a month-to-month basis, lowering the year over year rate to 8.5%.

This was a welcome sign, as inflation is half of the Fed dual mandate, which is to maintain "price stability". If inflation cools, it will take pressure off the Fed to hike rates aggressively in the future - hence the sharp rally in stocks.

What caused the drop in inflation pressures? A material decline in oil prices, which have fallen to $90 a barrel from recent highs of $124. Oil and high energy costs have been a major input in consumer inflation, so if prices recede further, it will go a long way to more inflation relief which will lead to lower rates.

Far From Out of the Woods

Some folks are saying inflation is zero, which might sound comforting in certain political environments, but inflation is still running at 8.5%, which was a level last touched in March and remains the second highest reading in over 40 years.

A lot of geopolitical concerns in Russia/Ukraine could have an impact on oil prices going forward. If things get worse this winter where demand is high, it could easily push prices higher. On the other hand, the increasing fears of an extended slowdown and less demand, which has played a big part of the recent price decline, could lead to further relief at the pump and less overall inflation.

Another concern is wages continue to rise sharply and stocks have made an impressive rebound over the past few weeks...this could lead to higher inflation lingering around longer than hoped.

Fed Rate Impact

The probability of a .75% rate hike to the Fed Funds Rate in September dropped sharply in response to the cooler inflation data. This could change as more economic data comes in over the next few weeks. This means we should expect more uncertainty and market volatility ahead.

Bottom line: Home loan rates are well off their June peaks. Ironically, the rate improvement started the moment the Fed raised the Fed Funds Rate by .75% for the first time in 28 years. With rates having improved, more housing stock coming to market in some areas and home price gains slowing. Now is a great time to consider purchasing a home.

Last Week In Review: Fed Rate Hikes Push Home Loan Rates Lower

Last week home loan rates continued to gradually improve since the Fed hiked rates by .75% in both June and July. The elevated chance of a recession and the Fed hiking rates into the slowing economy has pushed rates to the best levels since April. Let's break down what is happening and what to look for next week.

Don't Be Fooled

The media will talk about the Fed hiking rates and allow viewers to believe that it includes home loan rates. The Fed can only control short-term rates with the Fed Funds Rate.

Since the Federal Reserve began raising rates in June home borrowing costs have declined. Why? Don't higher rates from the Fed equal higher borrowing costs? Not necessarily. The Fed controls short-term rates like credit cards and car loans and the like, not long-term rates such as mortgages. As we said in the past, Fed rate hikes are intended to cool inflation, slow economic growth, and slow down the labor market. If inflation cools, the economy slows, and the unemployment rate ticks up...long-term rates move lower.

Long-Term Rates are Talking

The 10-year note is at 2.67%...pricing in a slowing economy and less inflation. Bank of America was out last Wednesday saying they see the 10-yr yield going to 2.00% as economic conditions slow.

When we think about higher rates, the only way long-term rates like the 10-year note and mortgages move higher is if the economy can absorb those rate hikes. With that said, if the economy was performing strongly and inflation was going to be a long-term problem, long-term rates would already be higher.

Energy

High energy prices have played a large role in slowing down the economy. This has consumers paying much more at the pump and for daily essentials. Oil prices have come down with a barrel at $90. Why? There are only two ways energy prices move lower. 1 - we create more supply or 2 - fears of a recession emerge. We are now staring at the latter. If energy prices break beneath $90, there is room that it will lead to further relief at the pump and less inflationary pressures which is good for long-term rates like mortgages.

Sliding Home Prices

The onset of a recession has impacted the housing market. Housing has finally seen some relief from skyrocketing home price gains in recent days as the CoreLogic Home Price Index in June saw a 18% year-over-year increase, down from the 20% plus gain seen in May. Another report showed that home prices cooled at a record pace in June. Big gains are not sustainable with historical percentage gains at 3.5% - 5%. CoreLogic is forecasting a 4.3% gain in home prices from June 2022 to June 2023. But low inventories are still plaguing the sector with the number of homes for sale on the market now 49% below levels seen in July 2019.

Volatility Remains

The next Fed meeting is in September. Up until that time, there will be several inflation readings and key economic reports for the Fed to consider. How these reports go may very well determine if and how much the Fed will hike rates. This will make the next few weeks very volatile in the bond market and interest rates. Again, if the Fed continues to hike rates into a slowing economy, it is likely we may see another downtick in home loan rates.

Labor Markets Slowing?

In the labor markets, The JOLTS report showed that there are 10.7 million jobs available across the nation, down from the recent number of 11.5 million as the job market is starting to flow. However, there are still 1.8 million open jobs per available worker with almost 6 million Americans unemployed. Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported this week that job cuts in July were up 37% from July 2021.

"The job market remains tight, and large-scale layoffs have not begun. There are some indicators that hiring is slowing after months of growth, however." said Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

Bottom Line: Home loan rates have appeared to make their peak back in mid-June. With more housing inventory coming to market, now is a great time to capture the home of your dreams with prices and rates off the highest levels of late.

The Federal Reserve raised the Fed Funds Rate by .75% in a widely expected move while home loan rates continue to be well off the highest levels in June. Let's discuss what the Fed Chair Powell said in his press conference and what it means going forward.

Boom

The Fed raised the Fed Funds Rate in back-to-back meetings by .75% or more for the first time since 1980 when Magic Johnson guided the Lakers to an NBA Championship as a rookie.

This rate hike has no effect on home loan rates. Or does it? The Fed raised rates by 1.50% in the last 45 days and the 10-yr Note yield has declined from 3.49% to 2.75% in the same time frame. Why?

Fed rate hikes are intended to cool inflation, slow economic growth and slow down the labor market. If inflation cools, the economy slows, and the unemployment rate ticks up...long-term rates move lower.

Recession or No Recession

In his press conference, the Fed Chair was asked about whether our economy was in a recession and Mr. Powell said he didn't believe the US economy was in or near a recession. He cited the resiliency of the labor market as the reason why the economy was not in a recession. He did reiterate it was not the Fed's job to define a recession.

The classic definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth. It will take a couple more months and revised reports before we see whether we have two back-to-back quarters of negative growth. In the same press conference, Powell did say the "slowdown in Q2 was notable".

Data Dependent

The Fed said that the size and scope of future rate hikes will be based on the incoming data. If inflation remains high, we could and should expect an "unusually" large rate hike especially if the labor market remains as strong as the Fed Chair noted.

Uncertainty and Volatility Ahead

There was nothing in the Fed Statement or Press Conference which should suggest higher home loan rates ahead. Watching how the Treasury Market is performing, its clear long-term rates do not see inflation as the long-term problem and the recent yield curve inversion in the 2-yr Note suggests we are in a recession, despite the Fed Chair saying otherwise.

Bottom line: Home loan rates have appeared to make their peak back in mid-June. With more housing inventory coming to market, now is a great time to capture the home of your dreams with prices and rates off the highest levels of late.

Last Week in Review: It's Fed Week

The quiet before the storm. This past week, Fed officials were literally "quiet" with no speeches ahead of next week's Fed Meeting where a .75% rate hike is widely expected. Let's discuss what will be an important week ahead.

Another Big Fed Rate Hike Coming

For the first time in over 40 years the Fed is expected to raise rates by at least .75% in back-to-back meetings.

This rate hike will have no direct impact on home loan rates, but it will increase short-term rates like credit cards, auto loans, and home equity lines of credit. Consumers should also expect a boost to the interest rate in your savings accounts.

How will mortgage rates react? That is the unknown at the moment. Back in June, when the Fed also raised rates by .75%, the 10-yr Note yield hit 3.49%, the highest levels in years, and moved sharply lower on increased recession fears. Today, the 10-yr Note stands near 3.00%. If the economy can absorb higher long-term rates, then we should expect long-term rates to move higher. Currently, the 2-yr-Note yield is near 3.25% and inverted with the 10-yr, which typically portends a recession.

In a recession, long-term rates do not go higher, and the Fed doesn't hike rates.

The Fed, who controls short-term rates, is hiking the Fed Funds Rate to slow demand, tamp down inflation, cool off the labor market and remove "froth" from the housing market.

Froth Removed

"Single-family starts are retreating on higher construction costs and interest rates, and this decline is reflected in our latest builder surveys, which show a steep drop in builder sentiment for the single-family market," Jerry Konter, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).

With the US economy close or in a recession, we should expect housing to slow, and it is. The single-family home market is also slowing in the existing home arena. The June Existing Home Sales report showed the slowest sales pace since June 2020, at the start of the Covid pandemic.

The median price of a home sold in June hit $416,000, another record and an increase of 13.4%. Price gains are expected to slow in the months ahead to a more normal rate of appreciation – this is a good thing.

The Unemployment Line is Getting Longer

Initial Jobs Claims, a leading indicator of the labor market, showed that 251,000 signed up for unemployment benefits. This is a low historic number, but the numbers have been increasing each of the last several weeks – highlighting layoffs across the country.

Currently, there are still 2 jobs available for every unemployed person that wants a job, so the labor market remains strong, which is great for housing as well as ensuring any recession would be shallow.

Let's hope the Fed stays true to their word and remains "nimble" in response to the incoming data which is showing signs of worsening.

Bottom line: Home loan rates appeared to have stabilized and more housing inventory has been coming to the market in many areas. With that said, if you are interested in purchasing a home, it remains a great time to find a home and capture rates well beneath the rate of inflation.

Last Week in Review: The Big Rate Hike

This past week, the Federal Reserve raised the Federal Funds Rate by .75%, the first such hike since 1994. Let's walk through what the Fed said and how the financial markets reacted.
"Clearly, today's 75 basis point increase is an unusually large one and I do not expect moves of this size to be common," Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
The largest rate hike in 28 years comes on the heels of the recent Consumer Price Index report, which showed a surprising spike higher in inflation. Up until that reading, the Fed Chair had led the markets to believe the Fed would only raise rates by .50%. However, true to his word, he said the Fed would "be nimble" and respond to the incoming data.
In addition to the rate hike, the Federal Reserve released their updated forecasts on the economy. They raised their expectations on inflation almost a full point from 4.3% to 5.2%. And they lowered their economic growth forecast from 2.8% to 1.7%. Lastly, they raised their forecast for the Federal Funds Rate from 1.9% to 3.4%. On the heels of last Wednesday's rate hike the Fed Fund Rate is now in a range of 1.50 to 1.75% so the markets are currently expecting about an increase of 1.75% to the Fed Funds rate between now and year-end.
As of this moment, the Fed sees the economy slowing, prices remaining high, and they will be raising rates even higher to help lower inflation.
"I think events of the last few months have raised the degree of difficulty, created great challenges, and there's a much bigger chance now that it will depend on factors that we don't control." Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
This quote highlights the challenge of the Fed. Can they administer a soft or as Powell says a "soft-ish" landing and avoid an economic recession after hiking rates further?
When Powell says it depends on factors they can't control, he means energy prices. Powell said, "we have no effect on energy prices". This makes things harder for the Fed because energy prices are the major contributor to inflation and increasing rates will not have an impact.
It's important to remember that Fed rate hikes have zero correlation with mortgage rates. It may seem contrarian, but rate hikes are intended to slow demand and lower inflation, which is good for long-term rates as it protects their value over time.
Back to the Future
In 1994, Fed Chair Greenspan raised rates by .75% and at that very moment, long-term rates like mortgages peaked. We will find out if history repeats itself upon Powell's .75% rate hike this past Wednesday.
For the foreseeable future, expect continued market volatility and uncertainty as we watch to see if inflation peaks and how much the Fed will hike rates – all while avoiding a recession.
Bottom line: As we watch to see if long-term rates peak due to the more hawkish Fed and .75% rate hike, an incredible opportunity remains in housing. Home loan rates remain beneath the current rate of inflation which is something that has not happened in nearly 50-years.

Last Week in Review: Three New Concerns for the Fed

This past week, home loan rates increased slightly from the previous week as we are just a couple of days away from the next Fed Meeting. Let's walk through what happened and discuss what to look for in the week ahead.
As we approach the highly anticipated Fed Meeting this Wednesday, June 15th, their job is growing increasingly tough as the economy slows while inflation remains elevated. Here are three new issues that make the Fed's desire to hike rates expeditiously, very tough.
1. Personal Savings Rate Falling Fast
The Personal Savings Rate, the amount of disposable income people save, was only 4.4% in April, the lowest since the Great Recession in 2008. A low savings rate is a concern because our economic growth depends on consumer spending.
If the consumer retreats and slows spending, it could cause a recession as consumer spending makes up two-thirds of our Gross Domestic Product (GDP). There are many reasons for the personal savings rate declining. Likely the largest reason is inflation. Headline inflation, which contains food and energy costs, is running at over 8% annually and this is weighing on the ability to save.
Another reason for the decline is the desire for many to go out and spend money in a post-Covid world. The first half of the year saw many people spend on leisure and hospitality, which also weighs on the ability to save money.
As it relates to the Fed, they are looking to hike rates to slow demand and get it more in balance with supply, which then lowers prices/inflation. However, if the savings rate remains low or declines further, consumer spending and demand will slow, and inflation will come down on its own. The Fed will need to watch how these numbers look in the months ahead as it determines if and how much to raise rates.
2. Consumer Debt on The Rise
If you see the savings rate decline as consumers continue to spend, it's reasonable to think credit card debt is also on the rise and it is. Last Wednesday, it was reported that revolving credit card debt rose by $17.8B, the second-fastest pace on record.
Moreover, total revolving consumer credit has risen back over $1T to pre-pandemic levels. Why is this a concern? Credit card debt is directly tied to Fed rate hike activity. So, this enormous increase in credit card debt is coming at a time when the Fed is supposed to hike rates, making this debt cost consumers even more.
If you couple the personal savings rate declining with debt rising, it is easy to see why the Fed is in a tough spot trying to hike rates. If the Fed does too much when the consumer is already cutting back, it will elevate recession fears even further.
3. Energy Prices Elevated
Oil is trading at over $120 a barrel, more than doubling in the last 18 months. This has lifted the national average gas prices to nearly $5 a gallon. Moreover, diesel prices remain at all-time highs. This sustained rise in energy is making the cost of daily essentials excessively high and is already starting to have a negative impact on consumer spending. Target recently reported that larger items like televisions and exercise equipment are sitting on the shelves as consumers spend more money to bring home daily essentials.
Elevated energy prices are another problem for the Fed. The Fed has never hiked rates with oil above $100 a barrel. If high oil prices are already forcing the consumer to make other choices and slow spending, then hiking rates would only make that problem worse. As it relates to inflation, Fed rate hikes will not lower energy prices either.
One could argue that high energy costs are doing the job of the Fed...slowing demand and taking money out of the economy.
Bottom line: These themes above will limit how high long-term rates, like mortgages, can go. In fact, prices have been moving sideways over the last 60 days, suggesting that a bottom is in place. What happens at the Fed Meeting may very well cement which side of 3.00% the 10-yr Note will reside.

Last Week in Review: The Feds Job on Jobs

Home loan rates increased slightly from the previous week as we are just a couple of weeks before the next Fed meeting. Let's walk through what happened and discuss what to look for in the week ahead.
"As I will explain, this very tight labor market has implications for inflation and the Fed's plans for reducing inflation." Fed Governor, Christopher Waller.
The Labor Market is Starting to Show Signs of Weakness
Promoting maximum employment is the second part of the Fed's dual mandate. The other part is maintaining price stability or inflation. The Fed has been saying the labor market is extremely tight and they want to see it cool off some. By cooling the labor market a bit, the Fed expects consumer demand to slow and prices to come down. As you can see this is a difficult situation to manage and why the fears of recession have risen sharply of late.
In the last couple of weeks, we have seen signs that the labor market is starting to cool. Many tech firms like Snapchat and Netflix said they over-hired and have cut jobs. The Initial Jobless Claims report, a leading indicator of the health of the labor market, has been showing weekly increases in people seeking unemployment benefits. Last Thursday, the ADP Report, a reading on private job creation, came in at the lowest levels in 2 years.
We shall see what the Fed says about the labor market on June 15th, when they release their Monetary Policy statement...and we are going to find out what they are going to do about it. Currently, the financial markets are expecting the Fed Funds Rate to rise by 1.75% or so from the current .75% level.
Fed Backtracks Underway
Up until recently, the Fed has been speaking very hawkish about their need to increase rates "expeditiously". This jawboning measure has had an impact on the economy and many rates, like mortgages which have already increased expeditiously.
Add this to Core inflation being tamer the past couple of months and the recent weaker labor market news – and its giving rise to the recent Fed speak to be less hawkish or tough on future rate hikes.
We shall find out what the Fed will say on June 15th, but we are continually reminded of how they said they would be "nimble" and react to the incoming data.
They may need to be nimble as they do not want to over hike rates and attempt to shrink the balance sheet if the economy is slowing, otherwise, the Fed's action could tip the US into a recession.
Bottoming out Process is Not Pretty
Home loan rates have moved sharply in both directions in the last 2 months as mortgage-backed security prices attempt to find a price bottom/rate peak.
The good news? Currently, MBS prices are exactly at the same levels they were in mid-April. So, while rates moved higher one month ago, they are attempting to settle at the best levels in 45 days.
Bottoming out processes in financial markets are never pretty and we should expect more volatility ahead. But...it is starting to appear like we may have made a peak in rates over the last 30 days. The incoming data, along with fiscal and Fed policy will determine so.
Bottom line: If you or someone you know are considering a mortgage, now is a great time. Rates have improved slightly but any improvement from here may be modest as inflation remains very high.

Last Week in Review: Some Good News on Rates

This past week, home loan rates improved to the best levels in a month. The 10-yr Note yield closed beneath 2.80% for two consecutive days for the first time since April 13th. Moves like these begin to suggest that rates may have peaked. The main reason for the decline in rates is due to rising fears of a recession.

Last Thursday, the 2nd reading of 1st Quarter GDP showed a 1.5% contraction in economic growth. A textbook definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth or contraction. Currently, estimates for the 2nd Quarter GDP sit around 1.5%. When coupled with the 1st quarter contraction, we will either experience a recession or something very close.

We also had some corporate earnings this week, which showed high energy costs are starting to hurt the consumer. Target and Best Buy said sales of big-ticket items like televisions and exercise equipment have slowed. Durable Goods Orders for April also showed consumers' appetite for large purchases has waned as energy prices remain elevated.

A barrel of oil is at $112 despite measures like tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserves and China still in a big lockdown with its zero-covid policy. There is a rising concern that oil prices will move another leg higher upon China's eventual full re-opening and demand increasing sharply. Another oil spike would be unwelcomed just as the Federal Reserve is set to raise rates by .50% in each of the next two months.
Speaking of the Fed, the financial market is starting to sense the Fed will pause after a couple of rate hikes. The incoming economic data will determine how far the Fed will go.

Some signs inflation may have peaked too. The 10-yr inflation expectations have declined sharply in the past couple of weeks and that too is a reason why yields/rates have declined. Seeing long-term inflation expectations decline is very important to the Fed as they do not want to see consumers “expect” higher prices in the future or it will likely happen.

Bottom line: Home loan rates are showing signs of peaking with rates hovering near current levels over the last month. Uncertainty and volatility around inflation, the Fed, and economic growth will continue to push rates and stocks around. If you are considering a purchase transaction, now is a great time to lock.

Last Week in Review: Recession Fears Emerge

This past week, home loan rates improved slightly in response to growing fears of a recession. Let's walk through what happened and discuss what to look for in the week ahead.
"What we need to see is inflation coming down in a clear and convincing way, and we're going to keep pushing until we see that." Fed Chair Jerome Powell May 17, 2022.
The Consumer is Still Spending
Last Monday, Retail Sales for April came in better than expectations, showing the consumer remains a bright spot in the U.S. economy. Despite soaring energy prices, consumers spent on automobiles, restaurants, and travel.
Consumer spending makes up nearly 70% of our Gross Domestic Product (GDP), so we need to see the consumer continue to spend if we want our economy to expand. A tight labor market should help the consumer continue to drive economic growth for now.
Single-Family Housing Starts are Stalling
The National Association of Home Builders reported new single-family house construction stalled in April in response to "weaker confidence in the single-family market, as rising mortgage rates and building material construction costs are driving more potential buyers out of the market," per Jerry Konter, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).
Overall Housing Starts for April remain steady, thanks to a surge in multi-family dwellings. It's clear that demand for housing remains strong and the current tight labor market should continue to drive this demand, despite the uptick in rates.
Target Misses Target
"We faced unexpectedly high costs, driven by a number of factors, resulting in profitability that came in well below our expectations, and well below where we expect to operate over time," said Target CEO Brian Cornell.
Soaring diesel costs and lingering supply chain issues were the main drivers cutting their profit margins. Cornell also shared that Target shoppers are concerned about 'the high and persistent inflation they've been experiencing, particularly in food and energy.'
Shoppers continued to buy daily essentials, but as prices increase, consumers aren't splurging on bigger-ticket items. This reflects how inflation works, if consumers are paying too much on energy and food, they will not spend money on other items.
In Comes Recession Fears
As mentioned earlier, if consumer spending slows, GDP will decline and if we endure back-to-back negative growth quarters of GDP...that would meet the textbook definition of a recession.
Stocks did not like the reports from Target and other retailers like Best Buy and Walmart and sold off sharply. Also pushing stocks lower is the idea the Fed will hike rates too much and push the economy into a recession, in order to lower inflation pressures.
The selling pressure on stocks came to the benefit of rates as the 10-year yield moved from 3.00% to 2.78% between Wednesday and Thursday.
Bottom line: Home loan rates are showing signs of peaking with rates hovering near current levels over the last month. Uncertainty and volatility around inflation, the Fed, and economic growth will continue to push rates and stocks around. If you are considering a purchase transaction, now is a great time to lock.