Last Week in Review:
Soothing Words Helps Rates Improve
We heard doves cry this week, when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke in NYC on Wednesday. Doves are people who offer peaceful polices, so upon Mr. Powell’s soothing speech both Stocks and Bonds moved nicely higher, with home loan rates hitting their best levels in nearly two months.
Some of Mr. Powell’s market-comforting words included:
- We know that moving too fast (hiking rates) will risk expansion
- It may take a year or more to fully realize the effects of hikes
- The Fed doesn’t see “dangerous excesses” in the stock market
- The policy rate (Fed Funds Rate) is “just below” neutral
The Fed is still very likely to raise the Fed Funds Rate in December, but the markets took the speech as signs the Fed will not hike rates three times in 2019, which was the Fed’s own forecast.
Fed Fund Futures, which represent market opinion on the future of the Fed Funds Rate now suggest there will be only one rate hike in 2019.
The incoming data and more specifically, inflation, will determine whether we see more hikes in 2019.
Bottom line – the present low inflationary environment and slower global growth is helping keep home loan rates historically low.
Last Week in Review:
Stocks crumble, yet rates go unchanged.
The old adage of “Stocks go down, Rates go down” didn’t work this past week.
Stocks started the week with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling nearly 1,000 points through Tuesday.
Typically, as Stocks decline, we see home loan rates improve as the investment dollars find their way into Bonds. That was not the case this week. Bonds and home loan rates hardly moved.
Why? Despite the bad selloff in Stocks, nothing in the U.S. economy has changed, the labor market remains tight, wages are rising, and consumer confidence is high – these are headwinds to further improvement in rates. Remember, rates like bad news.
So, while we have seen home loan rates improve over the past few weeks, the gains may have reached their near-term limit.
Now we are going to watch whether Stocks enjoy a “Santa Clause Rally” to finish the year or if they continue to fall. If Stocks decline another leg lower, we will likely see some modest improvement in rates.
However, should Stocks bounce higher from here, it will likely be at the expense of Bonds and home loan rates could move higher quickly.
Bottom line: Home loan rates have improved nicely the past few weeks and while historically attractive, they are hovering at a near-term bottom.
Last Week in Review: Eurodrama drives “safe-haven” trade.
The long-awaited Brexit agreement was dealt a big blow this past Thursday when two top Brexit officials and four Jr Ministers quit – citing the deal Prime Minister Theresa May reached with the EU was no good.
What does it mean for housing?
The U.S. Dollar, U.S. Bonds and home loan rates benefitted from the Brexit chaos as global investors parked their money in the relative safety of U.S. Dollar denominated assets (currency and Bonds) in what is called a “safe-haven” trade.
The U.S. Dollar had already been rising in value versus other global currencies and there are a couple of effects worth following:
- A strong U.S. Dollar tamps down inflation as it lowers commodity prices like oil. Have you noticed the recent price decline of gas at the pump? This is like a tax cut for the consumer looking to purchase a home.
- It makes U.S. imports cheaper. This along with lower oil keeps inflation down, which is good for long-term rates like mortgages.
- If the U.S. dollar strengthens further, the Fed may not raise rates as expected in 2019 because more hikes would further suppress inflation, which is already tame – again, good for home loan rates.
Bottom line – rates have improved from the worst levels of the year and it is quite possible that the highest rates of the year are behind us.
New Program Gives Originators a Distinct Advantage in the Market
ANAHEIM, Calif. (Nov. 19, 2018) — Carrington Mortgage Services, LLC (CMS), one of the nation’s largest privately held non-bank lenders, today announced the launch of its Correspondent Lending Division. The addition of the Correspondent channel complements CMS’s full portfolio of loan origination channels, which includes Wholesale and Retail.
“We have diligently built the Correspondent Division for success, and we’re now ready to hit the ground running,” said Ray Brousseau, President of CMS. “We’re committed to delivering a high level of transparency and timeliness to the non-delegated correspondent lending process. We understand that it’s all about providing our originators with the ability for further growth and profitability.”
CMS’s diverse product offering is designed to meet the needs of today’s non-delegated originators, and includes conventional Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac products, FHA and VA products, and Carrington’s proprietary Flexible Advantage™ Products which have been developed specifically to meet the needs of underserved borrowers.
“CMS has a proven track record of customer-centric service, combined with quick turn-times for underwriting and purchasing closed loans,” said Greg Austin, EVP of Lending for CMS. “Our non-delegated channel is committed to helping correspondent lenders increase their business by delivering products that allow them to work with borrowers in the underserved and non-QM markets. We also provide exceptional support for borrowers after the sale, and currently service over $60 billion in loans.”
For more information on the CMS Correspondent Program, visit: www.carringtoncorrespondent.com.
The Carrington Mortgage Services, LLC – Wholesale Lending Division Offices and Lock Desk will be closed Thursday, November 22, 2018 and Friday, November 23, 2018 in observance of Thanksgiving, which is a federal holiday. Due to the holiday, the Lock Desk will be closing early on Wednesday, November 21, 2018 at 11:00 AM PST (early market closure of 2:00 PM EST). Normal Lock Desk hours will resume on Monday, November 26, 2018.
Locks that expire on the holiday will automatically roll to the next business day. In addition, there are some important disclosure considerations associated with the holiday:
- Thursday, November 22, 2018 cannot be included in the rescission period for refinance transactions.
- Thursday, November 22, 2018 cannot be included in the seven (7) business day waiting period between the date the initial Loan Estimate (LE) was provided to the borrower and the consummation of the loan.
- When re-disclosure of the LE is required, Thursday, November 22, 2018 cannot be included in the four (4) business day waiting period between the date the revised LE was provided to the borrower and the consummation of the loan.
- When re-disclosure of the CD is required, Thursday, November 22, 2018 cannot be included in the three (3) business day waiting period between the date the revised CD was provided to the borrower and the consummation of the loan.
Issues related to locks should be sent via email to firstname.lastname@example.org.
Carrington will be exhibiting at NAMB National, December 8th-10th. Join us at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas, Nevada and stop by booth #906-907 to meet our knowledgeable Wholesale team. Find out how your go-to-lender for the toughest loans is also your one-stop shop to help pump up your pipeline with everything from Government to Conventional and flexible home loans solutions for the underserved and Non-QM markets.
Folks didn’t receive that memo this past week as the threat of rising rates and some not-so-rosy outlooks from firms like Amazon definitely frightened investors, who fled from Stocks.
All three major Stock indices – the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq sold off hard this week and are now flat-to-negative for the year.
Even a better than expected 3rd Quarter GDP reading of 3.5% along with a stellar consumer spending reading on Friday could not help Stocks avoid a selloff at the open.
The Bond market welcomed some of the money from the Stock selloff, thus helping home loan rates improve slightly.
- The markets are very volatile and the improvement in home loan rates this week is relatively modest when considering the magnitude of the stock market decline.
- With home loan rates off the highest levels of 2018 – now is a wonderful time to secure financing.
Last Week in Review:
Rates hit seven-year highs midweek on the heels of a confusing Fed message.
Our Federal Reserve has a dual mandate – to maintain price stability (inflation) and maximum employment. They also have a 3rd “unstated” mandate, which is to maintain market calm.
This past week, the Fed came up a bit short on that “unstated” mandate and created quite a bit of confusion and market turmoil midweek upon releasing the Minutes from the Sept 26th Fed meeting.
In that meeting we learned there is a group of “hawkish” Fed Members that want to hike the Fed Funds Rate more aggressively into 2019. At the same time, there were other Fed members who think the current Fed Funds Rates is “about right” – meaning no more hikes for now. The Fed talking out of both sides of their mouth was a source of confusion for the markets and home loan rates.
Adding to the confusion is the Fed’s very own inflation forecast which suggests inflation will remain close to current levels through 2021. If we recall the Fed mandate to maintain price stability, one could argue there is no need to raise the Fed Funds Rate if inflation is not rising.
Food for thought – If the Fed’s modest inflation forecast comes to pass, we will likely see home loan rates remain near historically attractive levels.
Last Week in Review:
Rates were higher early in the week – but improved on the heels of a soft Consumer Inflation reading and rout in Stocks.
When following the direction of interest rates, one only has to follow the direction of inflation. If inflation is moving higher, rates are going higher. The opposite is also true.
Lately, there has been a growing fear that inflation is threatening to rise due to our tight labor market, strong economy and rising wages. It was this fear that pushed rates higher over the past month, culminating with rates hitting their highest level in over 7 years this past Tuesday.
But come Thursday – the bond market had reason to breathe a sigh of relief and rejoice when the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) was reported lower than expectations. Remember – low inflation is good for the bond market and home loan rates.
It was just last month that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the Fed forecasted consumer inflation to remain near current levels through 2021. If this comes to pass, long-term rates like home loan rates can’t rise too much.
Also helping rates improve from the worst levels of the week was a 1,400+ point selloff in Stocks between Wednesday and Thursday. Generally speaking, when investors sell Stocks they park some of those investment dollars into Bonds.
Bottom line – home loan rates, while elevated since earlier this year, remain historically low…especially when you consider how well our economy is performing.
On Friday, October 12, 2018, Carrington Mortgage Services, LLC (CMS) resumed normal operations under the Disaster Policy. CMS will authorize funding in all five states (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina) that were previously placed on hold.
FEMA has declared the following counties in Florida for Individual Assistance.
Incident Period: October 7, 2018
Only those loans in these Florida counties are required to successfully pass re-inspection prior to funding.
Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina have not declared any individual assistance counties at this time, so re-inspections are not required for properties in these states.
- The only impacted loans are in the counties listed above in Florida. Any loans that already have appraisals in file will require a re-inspection.
- Any loans where appraisal inspections were dated prior to the disaster declaration date will require a re-inspection to be ordered.