Complacency Heading into Spring

Last Week in Review: Complacency heading into spring

Volatility has disappeared in the financial markets and a sense of calm and complacency has emerged. Why?

Well thanks to the Fed, and inflation and higher rates not being a threat — both Stocks and Bond prices are moving higher.

For 2019, home loan rates have been stable at one-year lows (look at the chart below), and everyone’s stock portfolio is increasing in value. What’s not to like?

Complacency will change to volatility at some point, and what we are watching is rising wages and how that may increase inflation in months to come.

Should that happen, we could experience a real shock to the US Bond market and the present complacent interest rate market will be over — and in a hurry.

But for now, complacency is the theme as we head into the Spring housing market…meaning good times for us.

Euro pain, US bonds gain

 

Last Week in Review: Disinflation washes up on our shores

If inflation moves lower or is expected to move lower — rates must go lower as well. That’s the situation right now.

The financial markets and interest rates also follow inflation on a global scale. Why is this important to homeowners?

If disinflation or the rate of inflation moderates in places like Europe, interest rates in those countries move lower and tend to drag US interest rates lower as well.

This past week we watched home loan rates revisit one-year lows upon news that the European Central Bank or ECB downgraded their economic outlook and inflation expectations.

The ECB said they now expect 2019 economic growth to come in at a paltry 1.1%, down sharply from a previous forecast of 1.7%. Moreover, ECB officials said inflation, which is already very low, could move lower still.

Again, if inflation moves lower in large countries around the globe — we tend to see improvement in long-term US interest rates…that is the current trend.

Interest rates don’t buy houses, jobs do!

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that just 20,000 jobs were created in February, well below expectations of 175,000. This was a disappointing number, but the unemployment rate fell to 3.8% and wages grew by 3.4% year over year…the highest level in a decade. Overall the labor market continues to expand and wages are rising — all good news for housing.

U.S. Economy showing solid growth

Last Week in Review: U.S. Economy showing solid growth.

This past week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported the U.S. economy, as defined by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), grew at a 2.6% rate in the fourth quarter of 2018. Economists and the markets were expecting 2.0% to 2.3%, so this was a nice upside surprise.

This left GDP for all of 2018 at 2.9%. Consumer spending, which makes up nearly two thirds of GDP, expanded by a solid 2.8% in the fourth quarter – yet slower than the previous quarter.

Another solid number within the report was business investment which grew at a swift 6.2% pace.

This Q4 GDP reading was the first of three – so we will see some revisions in the months ahead.

Seeing the economy grow at such a nice clip despite high stock market volatility and the U.S. government shutdown is a good sign as we head into the spring housing market.

The increased wealth effect caused by the recent rally in Stocks along with one-year lows on home loan rates, rising wages and increased housing inventory sets the stage for an improved 2019 housing market.

March Special – No Underwriting Fee + Same Day Turnaround

Back by Popular Demand!

Carrington Mortgage Services, Wholesale Lending Division is offering to waive the underwriting fee on ALL Non-QM* submissions in the month of March. Whether you submit 1 or 100 loans, the underwriting fee ($650 in most states) will be waived!

Bonus: The Slamdunk Offer!

In by 10 and out Same Day**

For any full submission*** received in underwriting by 10 a.m., we will commit to have a same day turnaround and have a response to you by the end of the day. How’s that for fast?

With lower costs and faster service, the Carrington Team is committed to making March very successful for all.

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*Carrington Flexible Advantage (Non-QM) product requirements vary depending on the consumer’s credit grade, LTV, DTI, and FICO scores and may require reserves from 3 to 6 months. Ask your Account Executive for additional details and requirements. Not available in MA and ND. No cash out in TX.

**Submissions to our Windsor office by 10 a.m. Eastern Time will be completed by end of day (EDT); submissions to our Anaheim office by 10 a.m. Pacific time will be completed by end of day (PDT).

***Please see the Carrington Advantage Products Loan Submission Form.

No Rush to Hike Interest Rates

Last Week in Review: Minutes Revealed

The highlight of this past week was the Fed Minutes from the January Fed Meeting. The Minutes are a detailed record of the Fed’s monetary policy setting meeting, so the markets gain insight into the psyche of the Fed as it relates to interest rates, the economy and more.

What the markets heard loud and clear from the meeting Minutes was Patience — meaning, the Fed is in no rush to hike interest rates and they will watch the incoming economic data to determine when they might hike again. There is now a low probability for another hike in 2019.

What are the most important reports the Fed is watching which can influence rates?

  • Gross Domestic Product
  • Inflation (big report next week — more on that below)
  • Jobs Report
  • Consumer Confidence
  • Retail Sales

In response to the Minutes, mortgage bond prices and thus home loan rates are hovering near the best levels in a year.

Retail Sales hit a shocking 9-year low

Last Week in Review: Canary in the coalmine.

The financial markets are sensing a government shutdown and protracted trade war with China will be averted. This is good news and a reason why Stocks have continued to push higher and home loan rates have capped for the past few weeks.

But last Thursday, Retail Sales was reported at a shocking 9-year low. Combing through the report, a 3.9% decline in internet purchases was a huge negative surprise. With consumer spending making up nearly 70% of GDP, there is fear in the markets that this very poor Retail Sales number is an early warning sign that both consumer spending and thus economic growth are indeed slowing.

One thing we know for sure — Bonds love uncertainty and bad news. This Retail Sales report brought both and, as a result, pushed prices and home loan rates near the best levels in a year.

We will be watching future Retail Sales reports to see if this is just one bad report or the start of a negative trend.

In any case, reports like these support the Fed to not raise rates in 2019.

February Special – No Underwriting Fee + Same Day Turnaround

Special February Promotion

We have a sweetheart of a deal for you!

Carrington Mortgage Services, Wholesale Lending Division is offering to waive the underwriting fee on ALL Non-QM* submissions in the month of February. Whether you submit 1 or 100 loans, the underwriting fee ($650 in most states) will be waived.

In by 10 and out by 5**

For any full submission*** received in underwriting by 10 a.m., we will commit to have a same day turnaround and have a response to you by 5 p.m. How’s that for fast?
February is a short month, but with lower costs and faster service, the Carrington Team is committed to making February very successful for all.

Become an Approved Broker

Already an approved broker?

Login to brokerIQ


*Carrington Flexible Advantage (Non-QM) product requirements vary depending on the consumer’s credit grade, LTV, DTI, and FICO scores and may require reserves from 3 to 6 months. Ask your Account Executive for additional details and requirements. Not available in MA and ND. No cash out in TX.

**Submissions to our Westfield office should be completed by 10am Eastern Time; submissions to our Anaheim office should be completed by 10am Pacific Time.

***Please see the Carrington Advantage Products Loan Submission Form.

Why home loan rates will stay low

Last Week in Review: Why home loan rates will stay low

The Fed met this past week. As expected, they didn’t hike rates and the Fed Statement was very dovish, suggesting that rate hikes will be off the table for most, if not all, of 2019.

The Fed looked to muted inflation and slowing economies abroad as reasons to show patience in hiking rates further.

In response, home loan rates revisited the best levels of 2019 this past week.

This new position by the Fed is a complete departure from where they were just a few months ago, when Fed Chair Powell was forecasting 3 rate hikes this year.

People owning Stocks are feeling wealthier as shares hit a multi-month high this week after rallying 14% since Christmas. This is good for housing.

Job creations and wage growth are also fundamental to a healthy housing market and last week’s terrific Jobs Report showed steady growth in both.

More good news — the Mortgage Bankers Association just released a forecast suggesting that 30-year mortgage rates will remain below 5.00% through 2020!!!

Rates touch 2019 highs this week

Last Week in Review: Rates touch 2019 highs this week

Despite bond friendly news with the unresolved US/China trade relations and the ongoing government shutdown, rates actually touched 2019 highs midweek…this as stocks continue to move higher.

Home loan rates have been on the rise ever since the last Jobs Report and Fed Speech back on Friday Jan 4th — next week we are seeing another Jobs Report and Fed Meeting…more on those big events below.

The Housing market showed a surprising decline in Existing Home Sales in December. Despite the poor reading to finish the year, 2019 is setting up to be a good year. Historically low home rates, a slowing rate of home price increases along with the highest wage gains in a decade will see to that.

Stocks continue their winning ways

Last Week in Review:
Stocks continue their winning ways.

Home loan rates finished this week near unchanged and remain near 9-month lows — so we have that going for us.

Most of the week’s news was pretty bond friendly, including Brexit uncertainty, ongoing Government shutdown, ongoing US/China trade dispute, low inflation and more.

So why haven’t rates improved further with these bond-friendly tailwinds?

The first Friday of 2019 was the day things changed for the Bond Market when a blockbuster Jobs Report and overly dovish Fed Chair Powell speech were delivered, which has helped Stocks move steadily higher at the expense of Bonds.

Here’s an important word to consider as we head into the Spring home buying season and that’s disinflation, which means a slowing growth rate of inflation. We are seeing signs of this today and if the trend continues, home loan rates will benefit as 2019 progresses.

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